That meant Nevada’s monopoly had ended by the time Super Bowl LIII took place in February 2019. The history of Super Bowl odds is dominated by the Vegas books, but everything changed when the Supreme Court overturned a federal sports wagering ban called PASPA in 2018.īy the end of 2018, legal sports betting industries were underway in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware, West Virginia, Mississippi and Rhode Island. Until 2018, Nevada was the only state that offered legal sports betting on the Super Bowl. The Packers duly delivered by winning 35-10. Sportsbooks in Las Vegas presented the Green Bay Packers as the 14-point favorites against the Chiefs at Super Bowl I back in 1967. You can fade the public by backing unpopular teams at artificially inflated terms. Nothing has changed in terms of the respective strengths of the teams, and the line has only moved due to public sentiment. If the majority of bets are placed on the Chiefs, the sportsbooks might move the line to 6.5 points to balance their risk. This is because the sportsbooks move the line to encourage more people to bet on the unpopular team and fewer people to bet on the popular team.įor example, let’s say the Chiefs open as the 4.5-point favorites against the 49ers. You can unlock great value by betting on an unpopular team just before a game begins. If the Bills end up winning the game by 3 points or 4 points, both of your bets will win. There is now a 2-point middle between your two bets. At that point, you could bet on the Bills -2.5. The line then moves, and the Bills are the 2.5-point favorites. For example, let’s say you bet on the Cowboys to cover when they open as 4.5-point underdogs against the Bills.

This is the art of exploiting line movements in the build-up to the Super Bowl.

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